The Market Favors 'King's Speech,' Natalie Portman for Oscar Wins

You can listen to the Oscar watchers and the bloggers and the critics, but the most accurate way of predicting who and what will win a little gold statue is to leave it up to something rational: the market.

Enter the Hollywood Stock Exchange, an online stock market simulation that lets users "trade" on stars and movies. HSX traders predicted Oscar nominations with an 89 percent accuracy rate, going 10 for 10 with the Best Picture category, five for five for Best Actress and four for five in most other categories.

Now HSX is letting traders buy and sell the Oscar nominees. AwardOptions will halt trading at 1PM on Sunday, Feb. 27, before the big show.

So who does the market favor?

'The King's Speech' is the current front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar, trading at H$9.58, with the next highest picture, 'The Social Network,' trading at H$6.42. None of the other eight contenders come close, and after last night's SAG awards, their values continue to fall. The virtual value of 'King's Speech' dovetails with its value in the actual marketplace where consumers buy and sell movie tickets. Since its nomination, Fandango reports that 'King's Speech' has increased in popularity 76 percent among its users.

The best director race is also between 'Social Network' and 'King's Speech,' with the Brits again beating Silicon Valley by about 40 percent.

Natalie Portman is the clear front-runner for Best Actress with a price of H$15.10 and with Annette Bening trailing for 'The Kids Are All Right' with a price of H$8.93.

No actor comes anywhere near Colin Firth's H$13.88 price, making him the clear favorite in the category. Also following the SAG Awards, prices fell off for all best supporting actor noms except for Christian Bale, who the market predicts will take home the statue at the end of next month. And the same for Melissa Leo, who played Bale's mom in 'The Fighter.' Leo has absolutely no competition in the category, which includes Amy Adams, Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham Carter and Jacki Weaver, according to the marketplace.

There is still nearly a month to go until the awards, but the margins for potential winners are already so high we shouldn't expect any major surprises on Oscar night.