What happens when you combine one of the NFL's most popular teams and the largest market in the country?
Record-breaking TV ratings.
The New York Jets upset defeat of the New England Patriots netted 43.5 million viewers according to an NFL spokesman. That puts them as the most watched divisional playoff game in NFL history.
They pass the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers 1997 divisional playoff game who previously held the record with 42.7 million viewers.
Now in third place is Joe Montana's Chiefs against Warren Moon's Oilers in 1994 (which is also the last time the Chiefs won a playoff game).
The Jets will now travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, who have a wide-ranging fanbase. If anyone's going to continue breaking ratings records, it'll be the Jets.
Showing posts with label Patriots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Patriots. Show all posts
Monday, January 17, 2011
Patriots Prove It Once Again: Offense Wins Games, but Not Many Championships
Call it an upset. Call it a choke job. But however you want to refer to the New England Patriots' 28-21 loss to the New York Jets in the divisional round, there's one word you can't use: surprising.
New England looked to be the favorite to win Super Bowl XLV, rolling to a league-best 14-2 regular season record. They did it on the strength of a historically great offense; the Patriots averaged 32.38 points per game, the eighth-most in the Super Bowl era. In their last eight regular season games, they averaged 37.38 PPG and never scored less than 31.
But all that offense didn't matter when the season was on the line. And that's hardly unusual. In the Super Bowl Era, there has been little to no connection between historically great offensive production and championships.
In the 45 years of the Super Bowl, there have been 25 teams that averaged at least 30 PPG.
Obviously, there is a correlation between scoring lots of points and winning regular season games. The teams that have averaged at least 30 PPG have a combined record of 306-72-2, a winning percentage of 0.805 (roughly equivalent to a 13-3 season), while only two have missed the playoffs.
Once the playoffs begin, though, it's a whole other story. Here are the postseason results broken down by category. (Note: in the years 1966-1969, before the official NFL/AFL merger, there were separate NFL and AFL title games along with the Super Bowl. For our purposes, these games are considered equivalent to conference title games and counted as such.)
In other words, only 20 percent of the top 25 scoring offenses have gone on to win the Super Bowl, and just one of the top 12. Less than half the teams even reached the biggest game of the year. In addition to the 2004 Chiefs and 1975 Bills missing the playoffs, eight others, including this year's Patriots, failed to win a playoff game.
What's most notable, however, is the way that these teams lost. Most often, it was the result of their high-octane offense failing to show up with the season on the line. The 2007 Patriots are the most famous recent example of this. After setting the Super Bowl-era record for scoring in the regular season, they averaged just 22 PPG in the playoffs, a two touchdown drop-off. They petered out with 14 points in the Super Bowl against a New York Giants team they lit up for 38 in the regular season finale.
But those Patriots, or even this year's version, are hardly the only case. The 1967 Raiders were also held to 14 points in the Super Bowl after scoring 33.43 PPG during the season, and destroying the Houston Oilers 40-14 in the AFL title game.
The 2004 Colts were deemed unstoppable when Peyton Manning threw a then-record 49 touchdown passes. After lighting up the Broncos in a 49-24 wildcard win, they were held to a field goal in their divisional round loss.
The 1983 Redskins may be the most egregious example. They set a then-record with 541 points in the regular season (33.81 PPG) and torched the Los Angeles Rams for 51 points in the divisional playoff round. They squared off against the Los Angeles Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII, a team they beat in a 37-35 regular-season shootout, but with the championship on the line, they were hammered 38-9. Against a team that ranked 13th in scoring defense, no less.
Overall, 18 of the top 25 offenses were eliminated short of glory. In their Exit Stage Right games, they averaged 17.83 PPG—barely half of their 32.33 regular season average. Only one of those teams exceeded their regular-season average in its season-ending loss: the 2003 Chiefs, who scored 31 points against Indianapolis after averaging 30.25 during the season.
Even if you consider every playoff game a team played that season, the numbers don't add up. Overall, only five of the teams averaged more points a game in the playoffs than in the regular season. Not surprisingly, four of those were teams that won the Super Bowl (the other was the one-and-done Chiefs); the 1999 St. Louis Rams were the only historically great offense that won the Super Bowl in spite of a postseason scoring decline.
Clearly, having a high-flying offense isn't everything in the NFL. And it goes back to before the Super Bowl. The most potent offense of all time belonged to the the 1950 Los Angeles Rams, who averaged 38.83 PPG; they lost the NFL title game to the Cleveland Browns 30-28. The 1942 Bears scored 34.18 PPG in an undefeated regular season, then could muster only six points—on a fumble return for a touchdown, no less—in a loss to the Washington Redskins.
In the defunct All-American Football Conference, the San Francisco 49ers averaged 35.36 and 34.67 points in the 1948 and 1949 seasons. In 1948, they didn't even make it to the AAFC title game; in 1949, they flamed out 21-7 against the Browns.
Patriots players and fans are undoubtedly disappointed about how the 2010 season ended. But it's not the first time an offense rolled over its opponents in the regular season only to disappear in the postseason, and it won't be the last either. Maybe during their second-half tear, the Pats should have tried to save some of those points they were scoring for the playoffs.
New England looked to be the favorite to win Super Bowl XLV, rolling to a league-best 14-2 regular season record. They did it on the strength of a historically great offense; the Patriots averaged 32.38 points per game, the eighth-most in the Super Bowl era. In their last eight regular season games, they averaged 37.38 PPG and never scored less than 31.
But all that offense didn't matter when the season was on the line. And that's hardly unusual. In the Super Bowl Era, there has been little to no connection between historically great offensive production and championships.
In the 45 years of the Super Bowl, there have been 25 teams that averaged at least 30 PPG.
Obviously, there is a correlation between scoring lots of points and winning regular season games. The teams that have averaged at least 30 PPG have a combined record of 306-72-2, a winning percentage of 0.805 (roughly equivalent to a 13-3 season), while only two have missed the playoffs.
Once the playoffs begin, though, it's a whole other story. Here are the postseason results broken down by category. (Note: in the years 1966-1969, before the official NFL/AFL merger, there were separate NFL and AFL title games along with the Super Bowl. For our purposes, these games are considered equivalent to conference title games and counted as such.)
In other words, only 20 percent of the top 25 scoring offenses have gone on to win the Super Bowl, and just one of the top 12. Less than half the teams even reached the biggest game of the year. In addition to the 2004 Chiefs and 1975 Bills missing the playoffs, eight others, including this year's Patriots, failed to win a playoff game.
What's most notable, however, is the way that these teams lost. Most often, it was the result of their high-octane offense failing to show up with the season on the line. The 2007 Patriots are the most famous recent example of this. After setting the Super Bowl-era record for scoring in the regular season, they averaged just 22 PPG in the playoffs, a two touchdown drop-off. They petered out with 14 points in the Super Bowl against a New York Giants team they lit up for 38 in the regular season finale.
But those Patriots, or even this year's version, are hardly the only case. The 1967 Raiders were also held to 14 points in the Super Bowl after scoring 33.43 PPG during the season, and destroying the Houston Oilers 40-14 in the AFL title game.
The 2004 Colts were deemed unstoppable when Peyton Manning threw a then-record 49 touchdown passes. After lighting up the Broncos in a 49-24 wildcard win, they were held to a field goal in their divisional round loss.
The 1983 Redskins may be the most egregious example. They set a then-record with 541 points in the regular season (33.81 PPG) and torched the Los Angeles Rams for 51 points in the divisional playoff round. They squared off against the Los Angeles Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII, a team they beat in a 37-35 regular-season shootout, but with the championship on the line, they were hammered 38-9. Against a team that ranked 13th in scoring defense, no less.
Overall, 18 of the top 25 offenses were eliminated short of glory. In their Exit Stage Right games, they averaged 17.83 PPG—barely half of their 32.33 regular season average. Only one of those teams exceeded their regular-season average in its season-ending loss: the 2003 Chiefs, who scored 31 points against Indianapolis after averaging 30.25 during the season.
Even if you consider every playoff game a team played that season, the numbers don't add up. Overall, only five of the teams averaged more points a game in the playoffs than in the regular season. Not surprisingly, four of those were teams that won the Super Bowl (the other was the one-and-done Chiefs); the 1999 St. Louis Rams were the only historically great offense that won the Super Bowl in spite of a postseason scoring decline.
Clearly, having a high-flying offense isn't everything in the NFL. And it goes back to before the Super Bowl. The most potent offense of all time belonged to the the 1950 Los Angeles Rams, who averaged 38.83 PPG; they lost the NFL title game to the Cleveland Browns 30-28. The 1942 Bears scored 34.18 PPG in an undefeated regular season, then could muster only six points—on a fumble return for a touchdown, no less—in a loss to the Washington Redskins.
In the defunct All-American Football Conference, the San Francisco 49ers averaged 35.36 and 34.67 points in the 1948 and 1949 seasons. In 1948, they didn't even make it to the AAFC title game; in 1949, they flamed out 21-7 against the Browns.
Patriots players and fans are undoubtedly disappointed about how the 2010 season ended. But it's not the first time an offense rolled over its opponents in the regular season only to disappear in the postseason, and it won't be the last either. Maybe during their second-half tear, the Pats should have tried to save some of those points they were scoring for the playoffs.
Thursday, January 13, 2011
New England Patriots: Bill Belichick Isn't a Coach Rex Ryan Wants To Face
Rex Ryan has said enough since he arrived as head coach of the New York Jets to indicate that Bill Belichick is his mortal enemy.
From not coming to New York to "kiss Belichick's rings" all the way up to December's "we want to kick Belichick's [obscene name for a donkey]."
Last week, Ryan was asked a question about Peyton Manning, but was very quick to drag Belichick into the discussion. According to Pro Football Talk, Ryan said, "Nobody studies like him. I know Brady thinks he does. I think there’s probably a little more help from Belichick with Brady than there is with Peyton Manning."
Although many in the media saw this as an insult to Brady, is that an indictment on him as much as it is on Manning? Of course Brady gets help from Belichick; the quarterback and head coach should be on the same page for any team to achieve greatness. Not to say that Manning and Caldwell aren't on the same page, but Brady and Belichick most certainly are. They always have been, and always will be.
They embrace and embody the Patriot Way; teamwork and unity.
Brady, meanwhile, had his own small jab for Ryan. "Of course we [get help from Belichick]. I think we have the best coach in the history of football. We have a great offensive staff, a great defensive staff that get all the players prepared."
Could it be that Rex Ryan actually agreed with Tom Brady? Ryan said, "I recognize [Belichick] is the best. But I'm just trying to be the best on Sunday. And I plan on being the best coach on Sunday."
What Ryan may not realize, or may not want to admit, is that it's not about Rex Ryan vs. Bill Belichick. While their game plans and play calling will play a role in the outcome, they won't ultimately decide anything. It will come down to the players making the plays and executing that game plan for a full 60 minutes of football.
It will come down to the many match-ups between the two teams and how they break down.
That's where Bill Belichick comes in.
Remember when the Patriots were beating the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 13 by a score of 45-3? Most head coaches might be taking it easy on their players, resting up the starters and drawing up game plans for the next week.
Not Bill Belichick.
He was right in their faces, telling them that he didn't care what the score was, the Patriots were going to play a full 60 minutes of football. And they did.
He was still looking for weaknesses to exploit. And he did.
The scary thing is, he even made that game look like a mess. According to NESN.com's Jeff Howe, Deion Branch said, "The score was 45-3, but we had a lot of mistakes in the game and I think those are the things we focus on more. He drills us on it. You wouldn’t think we won the game 45-3, which is good. That’s a good thing. Once [Belichick] shows [the film], guys realize where they made the mistakes and we’ve got to correct those mistakes."
It doesn't matter to Belichick that they won 45-3, it wouldn't have mattered if they won 450-3. Belichick can look beyond those numbers and see room for improvement.
That's the type of team that's ready for every situation because they've seen it all, and know how to react. At that point, it's just about players making plays.
What Belichick realizes, that Ryan has failed to come to grips with, is that not saying a word all week can be the sweetest feeling in the world when you win on Sunday. Or maybe it only feels that way when Ryan has been talking all week.
Belichick coaches for 60 minutes, and holds his team to the same standard by ingraining that 60 minute mentality into his team.
You could truly call these Patriots the "60-Minute Men."
From not coming to New York to "kiss Belichick's rings" all the way up to December's "we want to kick Belichick's [obscene name for a donkey]."
Last week, Ryan was asked a question about Peyton Manning, but was very quick to drag Belichick into the discussion. According to Pro Football Talk, Ryan said, "Nobody studies like him. I know Brady thinks he does. I think there’s probably a little more help from Belichick with Brady than there is with Peyton Manning."
Although many in the media saw this as an insult to Brady, is that an indictment on him as much as it is on Manning? Of course Brady gets help from Belichick; the quarterback and head coach should be on the same page for any team to achieve greatness. Not to say that Manning and Caldwell aren't on the same page, but Brady and Belichick most certainly are. They always have been, and always will be.
They embrace and embody the Patriot Way; teamwork and unity.
Brady, meanwhile, had his own small jab for Ryan. "Of course we [get help from Belichick]. I think we have the best coach in the history of football. We have a great offensive staff, a great defensive staff that get all the players prepared."
Could it be that Rex Ryan actually agreed with Tom Brady? Ryan said, "I recognize [Belichick] is the best. But I'm just trying to be the best on Sunday. And I plan on being the best coach on Sunday."
What Ryan may not realize, or may not want to admit, is that it's not about Rex Ryan vs. Bill Belichick. While their game plans and play calling will play a role in the outcome, they won't ultimately decide anything. It will come down to the players making the plays and executing that game plan for a full 60 minutes of football.
It will come down to the many match-ups between the two teams and how they break down.
That's where Bill Belichick comes in.
Remember when the Patriots were beating the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 13 by a score of 45-3? Most head coaches might be taking it easy on their players, resting up the starters and drawing up game plans for the next week.
Not Bill Belichick.
He was right in their faces, telling them that he didn't care what the score was, the Patriots were going to play a full 60 minutes of football. And they did.
He was still looking for weaknesses to exploit. And he did.
The scary thing is, he even made that game look like a mess. According to NESN.com's Jeff Howe, Deion Branch said, "The score was 45-3, but we had a lot of mistakes in the game and I think those are the things we focus on more. He drills us on it. You wouldn’t think we won the game 45-3, which is good. That’s a good thing. Once [Belichick] shows [the film], guys realize where they made the mistakes and we’ve got to correct those mistakes."
It doesn't matter to Belichick that they won 45-3, it wouldn't have mattered if they won 450-3. Belichick can look beyond those numbers and see room for improvement.
That's the type of team that's ready for every situation because they've seen it all, and know how to react. At that point, it's just about players making plays.
What Belichick realizes, that Ryan has failed to come to grips with, is that not saying a word all week can be the sweetest feeling in the world when you win on Sunday. Or maybe it only feels that way when Ryan has been talking all week.
Belichick coaches for 60 minutes, and holds his team to the same standard by ingraining that 60 minute mentality into his team.
You could truly call these Patriots the "60-Minute Men."
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
NFL Playoff Schedule: Ravens-Steelers, Packers-Falcons, Seahawks-Bears, Jets-Patriots
The NFL playoff schedule continues into the divisional round after an excellent round of games on wildcard weekend. The Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets advance in the AFC and the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks advance in the NFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears will host the games next weekend after their first round bye.
Here is the schedule for the divisional round of games next weekend:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 p.m. (ET), Saturday, CBS: This is a rematch as these two teams met twice in the regular season. This is always one of the best games of the year and we're treated to the playoff edition. The Steelers will likely be favored at home but, as Baltimore showed on Sunday, this is a heck of a road team.
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:00 p.m. (ET), Saturday, FOX: The Packers surprised the Eagles and they'll move onto the Falcons, who hold the top overall seed in the NFC. Matt Ryan has lost just twice at home in his career and the Packers have been competitive in every game they've played this year.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m. (ET), Sunday, FOX: The Seahawks shocked the world by beating the New Orleans Saints last week and now they'll head to Chicago to play the Bears. I said last week the Seahawks didn't have a chance against the Saints. I won't make that mistake again here.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots, 4:30 p.m. (ET), CBS: Like the other AFC game, this is the third time these two teams will meet. The Jets won the first game and the Patriots slaughtered them in round two. Round three will be highly entertaining.
Here is the schedule for the divisional round of games next weekend:
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 p.m. (ET), Saturday, CBS: This is a rematch as these two teams met twice in the regular season. This is always one of the best games of the year and we're treated to the playoff edition. The Steelers will likely be favored at home but, as Baltimore showed on Sunday, this is a heck of a road team.
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons, 8:00 p.m. (ET), Saturday, FOX: The Packers surprised the Eagles and they'll move onto the Falcons, who hold the top overall seed in the NFC. Matt Ryan has lost just twice at home in his career and the Packers have been competitive in every game they've played this year.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m. (ET), Sunday, FOX: The Seahawks shocked the world by beating the New Orleans Saints last week and now they'll head to Chicago to play the Bears. I said last week the Seahawks didn't have a chance against the Saints. I won't make that mistake again here.
New York Jets vs New England Patriots, 4:30 p.m. (ET), CBS: Like the other AFC game, this is the third time these two teams will meet. The Jets won the first game and the Patriots slaughtered them in round two. Round three will be highly entertaining.
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