The Market Favors 'King's Speech,' Natalie Portman for Oscar Wins

You can listen to the Oscar watchers and the bloggers and the critics, but the most accurate way of predicting who and what will win a little gold statue is to leave it up to something rational: the market.

Enter the Hollywood Stock Exchange, an online stock market simulation that lets users "trade" on stars and movies. HSX traders predicted Oscar nominations with an 89 percent accuracy rate, going 10 for 10 with the Best Picture category, five for five for Best Actress and four for five in most other categories.

Now HSX is letting traders buy and sell the Oscar nominees. AwardOptions will halt trading at 1PM on Sunday, Feb. 27, before the big show.

So who does the market favor?

'The King's Speech' is the current front-runner for the Best Picture Oscar, trading at H$9.58, with the next highest picture, 'The Social Network,' trading at H$6.42. None of the other eight contenders come close, and after last night's SAG awards, their values continue to fall. The virtual value of 'King's Speech' dovetails with its value in the actual marketplace where consumers buy and sell movie tickets. Since its nomination, Fandango reports that 'King's Speech' has increased in popularity 76 percent among its users.

The best director race is also between 'Social Network' and 'King's Speech,' with the Brits again beating Silicon Valley by about 40 percent.

Natalie Portman is the clear front-runner for Best Actress with a price of H$15.10 and with Annette Bening trailing for 'The Kids Are All Right' with a price of H$8.93.

No actor comes anywhere near Colin Firth's H$13.88 price, making him the clear favorite in the category. Also following the SAG Awards, prices fell off for all best supporting actor noms except for Christian Bale, who the market predicts will take home the statue at the end of next month. And the same for Melissa Leo, who played Bale's mom in 'The Fighter.' Leo has absolutely no competition in the category, which includes Amy Adams, Hailee Steinfeld, Helena Bonham Carter and Jacki Weaver, according to the marketplace.

There is still nearly a month to go until the awards, but the margins for potential winners are already so high we shouldn't expect any major surprises on Oscar night.

Natalie Portman and Jane Krakowski Proudly Show Baby Bumps at SAG Red Carpet

Natalie Portman and '30 Rock's Jane Krakowski proudly showed off their growing baby bumps on the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards last night in Los Angeles.

According to PEOPLE, Portman, 29, wore a form-fitting white Azzaro gown with sequined detail and Roger Vivier black satin clutch. She also had on $2 million worth of Jewellery from Tiffany & Co. and giggled while she said, "I don't want to advertise that!"

Harpers Bazaar reports that Krakowski ,42, wore a one-shoulder Badgley Mischka dress with floral sequin appliqués and showed off her lovely legs in the short dress.

Krakowski was on the red carpet with her fiancé Robert Godley, and according to UsMagazine.com she told that her pregnancy cravings were pretty tame, "I haven't really had bizerko ones. I like to drink a lot of juice. Only good things for the baby."

Portman was one of the night's big winners as she won the Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role award for her performance in 'Black Swan'.

While co-star Alec Baldwin picked up the Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series Award, Krakowski and the rest of the '30 Rock' cast lost the Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series award to the cast of 'Modern Family'.

The Daily Mail reports that Portman is due to give birth to her baby in the summer and Krakowski is set to give birth at the end of April.

An Oscar Win for Natalie Portman Could Make Her One of the Highest Paid Actresses in Hollywood

Oscar watchers are all but guaranteeing that Natalie Portman will take home a little gold man for her work in 'Black Swan.' That $400 statuette may be the ultimate vanity prize in Hollywood, but it also carries some substantial clout in generating future value for an actor or an actress.

See, a little gold man tomorrow is actually worth more than a little gold man today.

Hollywood agents and managers estimate their clients get a 20 percent bump in their asking price for the next film they negotiate immediately following an Academy Award win for best actor or best actress.

An Oscar raises a performer's monetary quote, but also makes a difference in the types of material they are considered for. Directors and producers start to look at newer-to-the-scene actors, like last year's nominee Jeremy Renner, in a new light. It solidifies their brand as the gold standard of acting and, ideally, box office returns.

The Hollywood Reporter's Stephen Galloway predicts that a win for Portman will put her in the same circle as Reese Witherspoon and allow her to command one of the top salaries in Hollywood.

"For Portman, a best actress victory could propel her into the Reese Witherspoon stratosphere of $10 million-plus a picture, a lot more than the high-six figures she made on the $13 million 'Swan' -- just as Halle Berry's asking price shot up to more than $10 million after her win for 'Monster's Ball,'" Galloway writes in this week's issue of THR. Granted, Portman typically commands a salary in the millions and took a pay cut for 'Black Swan' because it was a passion project.

Her increased price tag will be worth it for whatever project opts to pay it. The Academy Award provides an external validation in the consumer's mind, akin to an FDA stamp of approval. The voters, who are aspirational to start with, offer a similar screening function of sorting through the year's winners and losers albeit without the drastic downside -- if someone sees a crappy movie they won't die.

If Portman wins, from here on out, "Academy Award Winner" will be attached to her name and every project she is associated with, and the entertainment consumer will feel validated buying Portman products.

This nomination alone, and the fact that she has been anointed the chosen front-runner, will no doubt boost Portman's asking price. The issue is how long she plans to take off following the birth of her first child this summer. Her window of opportunity is wide, but it doesn't stay open forever, and the longer she waits after this possible win could diminish her value in the marketplace.

Natalie Portman's Engagement Ring is Eco-Friendly

Natalie Portman's stunning engagement ring is just as blinding as every other Hollywood 'it' girl's, but leave it to the devoted vegan to flash an eco-friendly sparkler with an estimated value of $35,000.

Portman's ring was carefully designed by dancer-model fiancé Benjamin Millepied to include recycled platinum, an antique center stone and accenting pavé diamonds taken from a conflict-free mine, InStyle reports.

The ring was created for the couple by Jamie Wolf, a ballet dancer turned jewelry designer who collaborated with Millepied on the vintage-inspired statement piece.

"Ben was exceptionally thoughtful and dedicated and patient to make sure we had everything right," Wolf told the mag. "We wanted everything about the ring to speak to things that are important to Natalie."

Every element of the ring, from the recycled metals to the antique center stone, reflects Portman's preference for eco-friendly choices. The pavé stones' conflict-free certification means no one was hurt or treated unfairly in their mining.

Ashley Mendel Fox, a designer and vintage gem expert with New York City-based Camilla Dietz Bergeron LLC, calls Portman's ring: "a wonderful example of a classic design with a modern twist."

She explains the ring reflects a growing trend of placing antique stones in modern settings for a couple's romantic version of "something old" for their wedding day. In the case of Portman's ring, the older center stone, when combined with the new pavé stones, "really makes the ring pop."

The Oscar-nominee, expecting her first child with Millepied this summer, is known for opting out of leather shoes whenever possible and making conscious choices about what she puts in and on her lithe body. She briefly launched a vegan shoe collection that folded in 2008.

As for the meaningful ring: "I was really proud of how it turned out. It's gorgeous," Wolf told the mag. No surprise, a pleased Millepied helped his jeweler friend arrange a 'Black Swan' cameo.

After a Busy Film Workload, Natalie Portman Takes a Pregnant Pause

Natalie Portman’s aware you might be getting a little tired of her face. But she offers a compelling reason for making the plethora the films she’s got in the pipeline.

“Well, you have heard that the Apocalypse is coming, right? 2012 – The Mayan calendar?” Portman explains. “I thought that I would get it all in right before.

A freshly minted Golden Globe winner and leading contender to take home an Oscar for last fall’s “Black Swan,” Portman will be seen at more than just awards podiums this year. She’s got the raunchy/romantic comedy “No Strings Attached” dropping this week, plus stints as the Thunder God’s love interest in “Thor” and a comely warrior woman in the comedy “Your Highness,” both due this year.
“I feel bad for boring people with my face for a while,” she conceded, “but in as an actress it was really an exciting thing to get to work on all of these things almost back to back.”

“I learned so much from doing all these different types of movies,” Portman said, “because you bring the research and the seriousness and the discipline of doing a drama into something like 'Thor,' and you bring the humor and the improvisational attitude from something like 'Your Highness' into 'Black Swan.'”

Along with expanding her film resume, Portman was pleased to reclaim her curvier personal proportions in “No Strings Attached” after getting scary-skinny for “Black Swan.” “You're like, 'How did you get fat so quickly?'” she chuckled. “It was pretty great. It was like a palate cleanser after all of that discipline and focus and a very serious kind of set, to a really playful, fun [film] – obviously everyone is still very professional on this movie, but there's an improvisational feel all the time and everyone is there to play. It was a really great atmosphere – and I didn't have to work out because I was like, 'She's a doctor. They don't have time.'”

Now she’ll be taking some time off, with plenty of new strings attached: she’s engaged to “Black Swan” choreographer Benjamin Millipied and is prepping herself for the off-screen role of mother. Asked about her upcoming projects, she looks at her expectant tummy and says simply “I'm cooking a child.”

Natalie Portman Offended by Girly Cliches, Wants More 'Female Friendly' Films

Natalie Portman is known in Hollywood for choosing her roles with care. And up until 'No Strings Attached,' the 29-year-old has largely avoided anything that could be considered a "chick flick."

"I've always wanted to do [a romantic comedy]," she tells EW.com. "But the girls are always in fashion, and it's always about their clothes. They always want to get married at the end. There's some kind of makeover scene. That stuff offends me."

But Portman says her new film with costar Ashton Kutcher is an intelligent, female perspective on the played out girl-falls-head-over-heels-for-guy cliche. "My character is a woman who's working, who's trying to create her own construct for relationships, who's funny herself-- and isn't just the girlfriend of a funny guy," she says.

In 'No Strings Attached', Portman plays a doctor who chooses to have a sex-only relationship with Kutcher's character, a TV writer. The actress says the movie's screenwriter Liz Meriwether "writes women so specifically and smartly."

The soon-to-be new mom and recently engaged star is also in the process of developing more female friendly comedies through her own production company. Portman's producing partner, Annette Savitch, says, "We want to do movies that are female driven, from a frresher perspective. So if it's a comedy, it's not just about women out to find husbands. I think that's really lacking today."

For Natalie Portman and Others, One Film Can Mean Major Success and Real-Life Love

Listening to Oscar frontrunner Natalie Portman's best actress acceptance speech at the Golden Globe Awards, it became all too clear that the glowing starlet got a lot more out of the 'Black Swan' experience than just a hit film. In 'Swan,' Portman found not only the role of a lifetime, she also met the man who would become her fiance and father her child, French ballet dancer and choreographer Benjamin Millepied.

While the actress certainly isn't the first Hollywood star to start a relationship on-set -- doesn't it seem like most actors find love (or something like it) while filming? -- Portman can lay claim to being one of the few experiencing the best of both worlds: Not only is her film a career-defining smash, earning her the best reviews of her 16-year film career, her relationship with Millepied looks like the real deal.

Only a handful of other stars can point to one film as a game-changer the way Portman can. Find out who else fell in love (and stayed that way) on the set of a career-defining film, after the jump.

"Thank you to Benjamin, who is helping me continue this creation of creating more life. Benjamin choreographed the film, and also you might remember him in the movie as the guy when they ask, 'Would you sleep with that girl?' and he's like, 'Pfft, no.' He's the best actor; it's not true, he totally wants to sleep with me," Portman laughed during her acceptance speech. Millepied could not have looked more proud and smitten.

To date, 'Black Swan' has made $75 million at the box office. With awards season just getting into full swing, the indie hit, which cost only $13 million to make, seems en route to a gross of more than $100 million and is already Portman's biggest hit (you know, that doesn't start with the words 'Star Wars'). With multiple award wins already under her belt, the actress seems a shoo-in for an Oscar nomination and already has been pegged as the frontrunner to take home this year's Best Actress Oscar. Millepied will no doubt be by her side throughout, beaming as his Swan Queen sweeps through Tinseltown's biggest honors.

Portman and Millepied, however, are still decades removed from the gold standard of on-set Hollywood romances: Paul Newman and Joanne Woodward. Newman and Woodward met initially while working on the Broadway play 'Picnic' in 1953, while Newman was still married to his first wife, Jackie Witte. It wasn't until they reunited on the set of 'The Long, Hot Summer' in 1957, before either had broken out, that their romance flourished. The pair wed in 1958 and had been married for more than 50 years when Newman passed away in the fall of 2008.

'The Long, Hot Summer' was Newman's first major starring vehicle after nearly a decade of smaller parts, lesser films and TV work. Like her future husband, Woodward was a relative newcomer on the film scene -- though her star really took off while she was filming 'Summer' in '57, when 'The Three Faces of Eve,' for which she won the Best Actress Oscar, was released.

Newman and Woodward went on to have three daughters together and starred opposite each other in 10 different films, including 1990's 'Mr. & Mrs. Bridge,' for which Woodward earned her fourth Academy Award nod. Newman even directed Woodward to an Oscar nomination for 1968's 'Rachel, Rachel.'

'Summer's' success was just the beginning for Newman, whose career exploded following its release. That same year, he starred opposite Elizabeth Taylor in the classic film adaptation of Tennessee Williams' play 'Cat on a Hot Tin Roof,' which brought him the first of eight Best Actor Oscar nominations. (He earned a best supporting actor nod for 2003's 'The Road to Perdition.') In the decade that followed, he starred in 'The Hustler,' 'Hud' and 'Cool Hand Luke.'

Woodward remained a constant in the actor's life, and when asked about infidelity in Hollywood, the philanthropic star famously quipped, "Why go out for hamburger when you have steak at home?"

If Newman was famous for being faithful, one of his contemporaries, Warren Beatty, was, um, not. From the time he became a movie star, in 1961's 'Splendor in the Grass,' Beatty was a notorious ladies man. For 30 years, the handsome actor romanced some of the most famous women in the world, from Madonna and Diane Keaton to Cher and Ann-Margret. It has even been speculated that Carly Simon's classic song 'You're So Vain' is about Beatty.

But not even the world's most notorious lothario can resist Cupid's arrow when the right lady comes along, and there's little doubt that Beatty now looks back on his 1991 hit 'Bugsy' as far more than the film that last brought him an Oscar nomination as an actor -- it's where he met the mother of his four children, Annette Bening. Beatty has starred in only three films since 'Bugsy's' release nearly 20 years ago, but he's stood steadfastly at Bening's side and watched her career flourish. In the year's since 'Bugsy,' Bening's jumped from one acclaimed movie ('The American President,' 'The Seige') to the next ('American Beauty,' 'Being Julia') and is presently Portman's biggest competition for this year's Best Actress Oscar for her Golden Globe-winning turn in 'The Kids Are All Right.'

Not long after her film wrapped, Bening, like Portman, found herself pregnant with she and Beatty's first child, and the pair married in March of 1992. "After years of running around and having a good time, I began to realize with some embarrassment that in most ways my movies all seem to return to one fairly unoriginal recurring theme: 'Love conquers all,'" Beatty told the Express of Bening in 2007. "I don't know if it's true, but it seems to be true for me."

'Bugsy' was a late career high point for Beatty the actor, but meeting Bening on-set was a revelation for Beatty the man, whose wild ways appear tamed. "She [Annette] has a great capacity to be happy, which is a great gift to me and an even greater gift to her children," Beatty told The Independent. "For me, the highest level of sexual excitement is in a monogamous relationship. I would hate myself if I failed to live up to it."

And, of course, if we are talking about couples meeting on the set of a career-defining (or redefining) movie, we can't forget Hollywood's golden couple, Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie. While 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' was by no means a breakout film for either actor, it was, in many ways, a return to form for both, and its success essentially set the stage for Jolie's career in recent years. (Don't pretend you didn't notice she's played a spy in a few different movies recently.) Before 'Smith,' Jolie was in a bit of a career drought, having gone four years without a true hit. Pitt wasn't doing a whole lot better; sure, he had the 'Ocean's' franchise, but 'Troy' was a big budget bust, and his other star vehicles weren't delivering box office numbers fitting his stature in Hollywood.

Then came 'Smith,' which grossed a massive $478 million worldwide -- the film is the biggest hit of both actors' careers -- and introduced the world to Brangelina. Ever since the tabloids caught wind of their romance and its curious-seeming overlap with the end of Pitt's marriage to Jennifer Aniston, the pair have been caught in a perpetual whirlwind of drama, but Pitt and Jolie forged what seems like an unshakable bond, one that has weathered controversy after manufactured controversy. And they have six beautiful children to show for it.

"Not a lot of people get to see a movie where their parents fell in love," Jolie told the New York Times in 2008 of one day showing 'Mr. & Mrs. Smith' to her children. It is indeed a rare luxury, one she and Pitt share with Bening and Beatty and Portman and Millepied. Now, let's just hope Portman and Millepied can keep 'Black Swan' under wraps until their baby is old enough to understand just how much work mommy and daddy put in to making the film a tour de force of acting and dance.

Golden Globes Cement Best Actress Oscar Race as a Natalie Portman-Annette Bening Showdown

In the lead-up to the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes are usually a pretty good indicator of who is on the road to Oscar glory. While the prizes are handed out by two entirely different voting bodies -- the Globes come from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, a collection of foreign journalists who cover the American movie industry, and the Oscars are awarded by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, a collective of over 6,000 film professionals (actors, directors, writers, etc.) -- more often than not, if an actor or actress wins the Globes' lead dramatic acting prize, they go on to score the Oscar.

This year, however, both of the leading contenders for the Best Actress Academy Award -- Annette Bening and Natalie Portman -- took home Globes. In stark contrast to years past, a comedic performance is in very real contention for Academy's top acting prize, and since the Globes separate drama and comedy in the lead acting categories, all the Globes did was confirm something we already knew -- that this year's Best Actress race is pretty much a showdown between Bening (for 'The Kids Are All Right') and Portman (for 'Black Swan').

It's never a sure thing, of course, but the Globes do have a pretty good batting average when it comes to accurately predicting who will take home an Oscar. Only once in the last 10 years has the eventual Best Actress Oscar winner not also won a Globe. (The exception came in 2002, when Sissy Spacek took the drama prize for 'In the Bedroom' and Nicole Kidman won the musical/comedy award for 'Moulin Rouge,' while Halle Berry went on to win the Oscar for 'Monster's Ball.')

Most often, the Globes' Best Actress (Drama) winner is the one who takes home the big prize. Seven of the nine Globe winners who went on to win the Oscar won in the drama category, while the two musical/comedy winners -- Reese Witherspoon ('Walk the Line') and Marion Cotillard ('La Vie en Rose') -- won for dramatic performances in what the HFPA determined were musicals.

So while the Oscars do tend to favor drama, that Bening's performance is being treated as a comedic one certainly doesn't rule her out of the Oscar race. 'The Kids Are All Right' is probably better described as a dramedy than a full-on comedy, and her role as the lesbian mother of two children who seek out their sperm donor father is a heavy one.

There's also a sentiment in Hollywood that Bening is long overdue for an Oscar win and that her strong performance in 'Kids' is worthy-enough of recognition. The Academy has a long history of handing out what some call "career Oscars." Just last year, after four nominations and no wins, Jeff Bridges took home the Best Actor prize for 'Crazy Heart' despite being up against an arguably better performance by Colin Firth, who himself is the frontrunner for this year's win, in 'A Single Man.' There's no argument that Bridges gave a fantastic performance in 'Heart,' but was he really better than Firth, or was it just time for the acting legend to finally take home Hollywood's biggest prize?

Hollywood's inclination to award veteran performers who have racked up multiple nominations is well-known. In 2009, Kate Winslet, whose nomination for 'The Reader' was her sixth, took home the Best Actress trophy for a lukewarm-reviewed film while first-time nominee Anne Hathaway ('Rachel Getting Married'), who won raves as well as prizes from the National Board of Review, Broadcast Film Critics Association and multiple critics groups, looked on. In 1995, a famously competitive year, Susan Sarandon, who was 0-for-5 at the time, triumphed for her quiet turn in 'Dead Man Walking' over performances that have gone on to gain further esteem, most notably Sharon Stone's intense turn in Martin Scorsese's 'Casino.'

So while Portman's win in the drama category seems to better position her for a victory at the Oscars, the notion that it's Bening's turn to take the podium should not be discounted. The Oscars can be a notoriously political affair -- hence all the campaigning that goes on, when the award is meant to represent the best in film (not the most well-funded marketing machine). With both actresses enjoying Globe glory, Hollywood's second biggest honor has only further entrenched Portman and Bening in a celluloid war with the other -- for everyone else, well, it really is an honor just to be nominated.

Watch PopEater's own Denise Warner, John Mitchell and Jett Wells join Moviefone's Andy Scott to talk about Natalie Portman and Annette Bening's Oscar chances for Moviefone's Movie Club:

Natalie Portman Is Still Figuring Out Her Prego Style

Once Natalie Portman made the announcement last month that she is expecting fiance Benjamin Millepied's baby, everyone went on high alert, watching for her baby bump. But Natalie has been careful about keeping her bump to herself, dressing in shapeless shifts that style experts either love or hate.

"So far, she seems to be dressing for red carpet events in slightly looser clothing, rather than accentuate her growing bump in tight dresses," says Fashionista Senior Editor Leah Chernikoff. "But Portman's far too stylish to just throw on a shapeless sack or tent dress and call it a day. She's chosen appropriately modest dresses that still show off those 'Black Swan'-trained gams and arms: a blue ruffled Jason Wu to the People's Choice Awards on the 5th and a mod-ish Vionnet with a gold sequined collar to the 2011 Palm Springs International Film Festival Awards Gala."

Celebrity stylist June Ambrose thinks that Portman is still getting used to her new body and that we might see more daring bump styles down the road.

"It seems like she still wants to keep the cat in the bag," Ambrose says. "But even the baggy look can't hide this blossoming tummy, especially with her petite frame! First time mommies are always modest. We need to give her some time to get fashionably acclimated to her new nonballerina body."

Portman should make the most of the benefits of pregnancy, one of which is an amazing head of hair. But so far the 'Black Swan' actress has been conservative with her locks as well as her belly, opting for simple buns and ponies on the red carpet.

"While few women actually experience that elusive pregnancy 'glow,' a universal truth is that hair is at its healthiest and most gorgeous during these nine months," says Jackie Cascarano, creative director of luxury hair retailer Lock & Mane. "Pregnancy hormones temporarily prevent hair from shedding, leaving you with a full head of thick and glorious locks. Natalie should revel in the nine months of great hair by pampering herself with blowouts, deep conditioning treatments and ultra feminine accessories, like headbands and bobbies."

Portman's prego style right now is perfectly fine, but we all want to see just a little more fun, especially as awards season heats up. Tack on some tighter frocks and let your hair down, Nat. What good is a famous baby bump if you don't let it have its red carpet moment?

Jake Gyllenhaal Roasts Ex-Girlfriend Natalie Portman

It was all laughs between Jake Gyllenhaal and Natalie Portman at the Palm Springs International Film Festival this past weekend.

Gyllenhaal presented Portman with the Desert Palm Achievement Award at the festival, but had a few words to say about his newly engaged -- and pregnant -- ex-girlfriend before giving her the award, according to PEOPLE.

"Natalie is the Audrey Hepburn of our generation," the actor told the crowd. "She is elegant, graceful, has amazing eyebrows ... is talented, really short, funny, smart, dedicated, incredibly kind."

Gyllenhaal, who had everyone, including Portman's fiance Benjamin Millepied, laughing along, continued to roast his close friend.

"She's a vegan, which makes it really frustrating when you're picking a place to eat," he said, before adding, "She's also recently announced that she's going to be a mom, and her child will probably need therapy after seeing 'Black Swan.'"

Gyllenhaal and Portman briefly dated in 2006. She recently announced her engagement and pregnancy with Millepied, her 'Black Swan' choreographer and dance partner.